Most “best STR markets” listicles compare gross revenue against optimistic occupancy estimates and call it a day. We do it differently: cohost’s Analytics pillar runs comp-based revenue forecasts against the actual Inside Airbnb dataset for each market + subtracts realistic acquisition + operating costs at current mortgage rates. The output is a cap rate that survives an honest cross-examination.
Ten markets where the math currently works, ranked by projected cash-on-cash return assuming 25% down at the prevailing DSCR rate:
-
Sarasota, FL — outside Siesta Key proper 1.7M county TDT base, soft acquisition pricing, year-round demand. Median projected CoC: 9.8%
-
Asheville, NC — South Slope or West Asheville Permitted-STR inventory is limited but valuable; rates strong April–November. Median projected CoC: 8.2%
-
Gulf Shores / Orange Beach, AL The forgotten Gulf coast. Lower entry prices than FL panhandle with comparable nightly rates.
-
Hot Springs, AR Year-round spa-and-trail tourism; rates competitive.
-
Galena, IL Midwest weekend market with strong fall + winter holiday demand.
-
Pigeon Forge, TN Volume play; thin margins per unit but high occupancy.
-
Branson, MO Cousin to Pigeon Forge but with shorter season; budget for off-period.
-
Eureka Springs, AR Tiny inventory, loyal repeat audience, weekend skew.
-
Fredericksburg, TX Wine country + German-heritage tourism; weekend ADR is the story.
-
Joshua Tree, CA — outside the park’s immediate orbit Design-forward audience pays a premium for the right aesthetic.
A few caveats worth surfacing:
- Comp-based revenue prediction has industry-standard ±20-30% error vs realized. The cap rates above are projections, not promises.
- Cohost’s Analytics pillar is where you can run the same math on any specific property you’re considering.
- These rankings update monthly as Inside Airbnb publishes new snapshots + as mortgage rates move.
We don’t take a position on any of these properties commercially. The lender directory at /finance/lenders is the closest thing to a recommendation we make, and even there the ranking is alphabetical-by-tier rather than commission-weighted.